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Friday, February 4, 2011

Division Analysis: Pacific

I apologize, as my analysis of the Northwest Division was incredibly long. This time I'll try and shorten up the analysis of each team's season. Today's topic is the Pacific Division, home of the surprisingly good Dallas Stars and Anaheim Ducks, as well as the resurgent San Jose Sharks, hard-working Phoenix Coyotes and skilled LA Kings. Each of these five teams has a chance to make the playoffs, so you can expect moves to be made to add players to each of these teams at the deadline.



Dallas is at the top of the division, led by All-Star and potential Hart Trophy candidate Brad Richards. His 58 points lead the team, as he is their #1 center and powerplay point man. Scorers Loui Eriksson, James Neal and Brendan Morrow all have at least 18 goals on the year, while Mike Ribiero has 36 assists and Jamie Benn has 33 points in 46 games. Stephane Robidas and Trevor Daley headline the back end in Big D, playing good two-way games and making solid passes out of the zone. Matt Niskanen was expected to expand his role as an offensive defenseman, but with only six points in 40 games has not been able to fulfill expectations. Nicklas Grossman, Jeff Woywitka and Marc Fistric (when healthy) are able to provide Dallas with good defensive play. Last season's key acquisition, Kari Lehtonen, has proven that he has what it takes to be a starting goalie in the NHL. Plagued by the injury bug in Atlanta, he got a fresh start with the Stars last season and has performed admirably as the undisputed #1 goalie in Dallas. His .920 Sv % and 2.61 GAA have provided much more consistent goaltending than what Marty Turco had provided in years past.

The Stars are cash-strapped as owner Tom Hicks has defaulted on his loans. The team is being monitored by the NHL, but GM Joe Nieuwendyk has been able to show that his team will continue to push towards a deep Stanley Cup run. While Brad Richards may not re-sign with the Stars, Dallas is not going to move their best player at the deadline. Losing him in free agency as many have speculated is a risk that the Stars have to take if they have any chance to succeed this year. The Stars have plenty of firepower up front, and could use a veteran depth defender to solidify their team for a cup run. Jamie Langenbrunner was brought in to solidify the bottom-6 with veteran experience, and the Stars have a very good group for the post-season. Nieuwendyk could dangle disappointing defenseman Matt Niskanen as a roster player for trade bait, but aside from that do not have many interesting prospects or available players. Dallas may make a move at the deadline, but don't expect it to involve Brad Richards and don't expect it to shakeup the roster significantly. They are poised to go deep into the playoffs this year.

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Anze Kopitar has lead the Kings this season as their key cog in the system, but he has not been as successful as he was last season. After missing out in the Ilya Kovalchuk sweepstakes Los Angeles had to make due with what was available, and with important players staying healthy and being productive, the Kings could make the playoffs for the second straight season. Kopitar has had a successful year scoring 49 points in 52 games, yet has regressed as a weapon on the powerplay. He has five powerplay goals this season, yet scored 14 last year. Drew Doughty has also had an up and down season, but has been heating up lately and looks to contribute as he did last year. Justin Williams has stayed healthy, and has proven that he can be a good scorer in his walk year to free agency. Dustin Brown, Ryan Smyth and Jarret Stoll have also had good seasons to provide the punch for LA's attack. Jack Johnson has had an excellent season and signed an extension earlier to stay with the Kings for the foreseeable future. Jon Quick has provided good performances in net, sporting a 23-14-1 record with a .920 Sv % and an excellent 2.12 GAA. Jonathan Bernier's rookie season has been less than stellar, yet not terrible. He has a 5-8-1 record with a 2.84 GAA and a pedestrian .900 Sv %.

Like most teams, the Kings could use another scorer to help solidify their top-6. In addition, a veteran defenseman could really help in buckling down in front of Quick down the stretch. Dean Lombardi is not afraid to make big moves, and could move a significant piece if a deal can bring in a superstar player. Linked to such superstars as Kovalchuk, Jarome Iginla and Brad Richards, a tier I player could be added at the deadline to push the Kings over the top. Currently tied for eighth in the West, LA will look to make a strong late season push to make it into the post season.

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Jonas Hiller has stood on his head at times this season, bailing the Ducks out of games they had no business of being in. His .920 Sv % and 2.56 GAA are both proof that Ducks' GM Bob Murray made the right decision in trading J-S Giguere to the Leafs last year. Hiller has ran with the starting job, though he has not had much competition from backup Curtis McElhinney. Corey Perry and veteran Teemu Selanne, the ageless wonder, have lead the Ducks up front. Perry is averaging a point per game, while Selanne has 15 goals and 30 assists on the year. Ryan Getzlaf was on pace to have another great year with 37 points in 40 games before he was injured. He is coming back soon, which will be a much needed boost to their offense. Lubomir Visnovsky is having a monster of a season from the back end, having scored eight goals and assisting on 35 others. Rookie surprise Cam Fowler is having a successful first NHL campaign with 27 points on the year. Bobby Ryan continues his goalscoring ways with 23 already on the year, while Joffrey Lupul is healthy again and has 13 points in 25 games.

The Ducks most glaring need is in the top-6, and another winger to aid the cast of Ryan, Getzlaf, Perry and Selanne would be very welcome. Anaheim has also had a very shallow defense this year, having to deal with the loss of Scott Niedermeyer due to retirement. Toni Lydman has played well on the backend, but with poor play from Andy Sutton in a season where he has struggled to stay healthy, acquiring a veteran defenseman would certainly aid in their quest to make the playoffs and go deep this year.

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Aside from the twitter sensation that is BizNasty2point0, the Coyotes have had some very good surprises so far this season. A team that finished with 107 points last season, the Desert Dogs are not on pace for as good of a season but are still poised to make the playoffs; their second time in two seasons under coach Dave Tippett. Defenseman Keith Yandle got an All-Star bid as a replacement this season, and leads the team in points with 45. That total also currently leads all NHL defenseman in points, having a higher total than more expected candidates like Nicklas Lidstrom and Dustin Byfuglien. Veterans Ray Whitney and Shane Doan have also had good seasons in the desert, providing leadership and scoring on a younger team that needs it. Kyle Turris' first full NHL season since his rookie year has had its ups and downs, as he currently has 17 points on the year. Rookie defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson has provided another weapon on the back end, with one goal and ten assists on the year in 37 games. Ilya Bryzgalov has continued to be a rock in net, sporting a .910 Sv % and 2.74 GAA. He continues to bring excellent play to Phoenix game in and game out, which is something that was lacking before he was claimed off of waivers.

I do not expect the Coyotes to make many moves at the trade deadline, as they have a young team that is going to get better with experience. The Coyotes have lots of younger players who are still developing with the team or in the minors, and the best days are yet to come. In an effort to continue to build for the coming years, Phoenix could offer veteran players such as Ed Jovanovski, Adrian Aucoin, Taylor Pyatt, Vernon Fiddler and Scotty Upshall. I do not think that the Coyotes will be sellers at the deadline, however I do not expect them to move young and important pieces for veteran help this year. Times are looking bright for the Coyotes on the ice, even if their off-ice situation is less than ideal.

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The Sharks are not used to having to fight for a playoff position, as they are usually more worried about match-ups in the playoffs instead. Unfortunately due to the inconsistencies of the team as a whole, the Sharks have had a roller coaster season. Staple netminder Evgeni Nabokov left for greener pastures in the KHL (or so he thought), and the team turned to two free agent goalies at the start of the season. Both Antero Niittymaki and Antti Niemi have had their struggles this year, and neither has grabbed the starting job outright. Niemi has started in 31 games, and Niittymaki has started in 21. The tandem has not been spectacular, becoming a major part of the issues of this Sharks team. What also doesn't help is that Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton and Dany Heatley have combined for a -30 rating. Jumbo Joe is on pace for his worst statistical season since 2001-02, while Marleau has also taken a step back from the 38 and 44 goals he has scored in the last two years. Following the trend, Dany Heatley may not score more than 35 goals, as he has surpassed 38 in each of the last five seasons. It has not been all bad for the Sharks this year as the man featured in the picture above, rookie Logan Couture, leads the team in goal scoring with 22 on the year. In addition, Ryan Clowe has played above expectations to post 41 points in 48 games. Dan Boyle leads a shallow defense on both offense and defense, as only he and Jason Demers have more than 15 points on the year from the blueline.

That leads me to what the Sharks must address at the coming trade deadline. The Sharks must acquire a veteran defenseman, as the loss of Rob Blake has been felt badly this year. If the Sharks decide that this is their year, they could dangle one of their skilled forwards, say Ryan Clowe or Devin Setoguchi. These two players could be very good base pieces to a larger deal that brings in a veteran defenseman that can help stabilize the group. If the Sharks don't act fast, they will be on the outside looking in for the first time since 2002-03.

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There it is folks; my thoughts on the Pacific division. There will be lots of movement in this division, as each team attempts to gear up for the playoffs and make a statement that they are there to win. I feel that more players will be brought in to the Pacific than sent out, so the balance of power in the West could shift to the state of California. It should prove to be an exciting time in the coming weeks. AW, over and out.

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