Total Pageviews

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Division Analysis: Northwest

Let's talk about the teams of the Northwest division. There are teams at the top of the West, as well as the bottom, and several of these teams can be challenging for a playoff as this season wraps up. I'm going to talk about each team and also what they might do at the trade deadline.

Let's start with the Edmonton Oilers. A rebuilding squad, this season has been all about the young players. Overall, there have been seven rookies in the Oiler's lineup this season, and there have been three in particular that are creating buzz for Edmonton fans. First overall pick Taylor Hall has had a good but not spectacular rookie season. He currently sits second on the team with 31 points, including 16 goals. Hall is actually on pace to score around the same point total that All World player Steven Stamkos had three short years ago, so there should not be concern among the Edmonton faithful. Jordan Eberle also made his NHL debut this season and has suffered through some injuries, playing in 37 games while scoring 23 points. Those include some highlight reel goals, including his first NHL goal which was a beauty shorthanded against Calgary in the season opener. The third Edmonton rookie that the Oilers look to get contributions from in the future is Magnus Paajarvi. He sits with six goals and 19 points this season, which are not bad totals for the young Swedish forward, as he will mature and progress with more NHL experience. Ales Hemsky is currently tied for third on the team in scoring, yet has only played in 32 games this season. His most recent injury was a concussion that has kept him out of the lineup, and this has been the story for the past two years. The talent is there, but he has not been able to stay healthy on a consistent basis. When healthy, Hemsky is a top talent. After a revelation season, Dustin Penner is back to his frustrating ways with 16 goals and 32 points in 49 games this year. Some thought Penner finally realized his potential as a power forward last season when he scored 32 goals and 63 points, but he has regressed. Sam Gagner has also had yet another disappointing season, with 11 goals and 29 points on the year. It can be argued that the young forward was rushed to the NHL, but Gagner's best season was his rookie year in 2007-08, as every year since his totals have gotten worse.

It is a rebuilding season for the Oilers, and I cannot imagine any players not named Hall, Eberle or Paajarvi that are not on the block. Hemsky and Penner can be valuable assets to any team looking for a scorer, while forwards Gagner and Cogliano are also rumored to be on the trading block. Cogliano was supposedly part of the deal that would have brought Dany Heatley to Edmonton, but Heatley refused the deal with his no-trade clause. Veteran defensemen Kurtis Foster and Jim Vandermeer are solid players that can add depth to any team looking to make a deep playoff run, with Vandermeer a UFA at the end of the season and Foster signed through next year. Sheldon Souray is also an interesting case, playing for the Hershey Bears of the AHL. Edmonton may expose him to re-entry waivers, but might also explore trade options once again. It will be a selling season for the Oilers come the trade deadline in a few weeks.

-----------------------------------

The Calgary Flames have had an interesting year, having an excellent home record (14-9-1) yet a less than desirable record on the road (11-12-5). It could be lucky for the Flames, but more than half of their remaining games are at home which could propel them into the playoff spot that they are in the hunt for. The Flames currently sit in twelfth place in the West, yet are only two points out of eighth place. That is truly evident of how close the Western Conference is, as at any moment a team can propel up or down the standings with a win. After a dreadful start to the season, Jarome Iginla leads the Flames with 22 goals and 47 points. Right behind him in scoring is Alex Tanguay, who is in his second tour with Calgary. He leads the team with 26 assists, and has 38 points on the year. Olli Jokinen has come back on a much more reasonable contract, but the enigmatic forward has only scored 30 points on the year. Signed in training camp, Brendan Morrison has 28 points and has been a pleasant surprise for a team lacking depth at the center position. Rene Bourque is on pace to continue his streak of over 20 goals, having 15 on the year already. Rookie center Michael Backlund has 11 points in 44 games, adjusting to the rigors of the NHL game. Mark Giordano and Robyn Regehr have led the team on defense, Giordano on the offensive side of the game and Regehr the defensive end. Giordano leads all defensemen on the team with four goals and 21 assists, while Regehr has 115 hits and 85 blocked shots. Miikka Kiprusoff has had a lackluster and forgettable season, going 21-18-2 with a 2.73 goals against average and a dismal .900 save percentage.

It remains to be seen as to what will happen at the trade deadline for the Flames. GM Jay Feaster is not afraid about making moves, and many have speculated that to be successful Calgary needs to blow up their roster. What makes matters more confusing is the fact that the team is 7-1-2 in their last 10 games, propelling them back into the thick of the playoff race. If Calgary believes that they can make the playoffs, then roster players and/or picks must be moved, as Calgary has one of the shallowest prospect pools in the NHL. If the team decides to sell, there are many pieces that could be moved to teams looking for help in the playoffs. Jarome Iginla has been informed by the team that he will not be traded, and I do believe that he won't be moved at the deadline. Robyn Regehr's future is not as certain. There have been rumors circulating all season that Regehr could be a major piece moved to start the Calgary rebuild. One rumor has Regehr being sent to Buffalo along with pending UFAs Curtis Glencross and Alex Tanguay in exchange for Drew Stafford and UFAs Tim Connolly and Craig Rivet. While I do not see that deal materializing, Regehr could fetch a good young player such as Stafford, and that is exactly what Calgary needs. Other players that could be moved by the time the deadline comes include center Brendan Morrison, utility forward Glencross as well as defenders Steve Staios and Anton Babchuk. We may not know if the Flames are buying or selling right up until the day of the deadline, but it will be an exciting and active period either way.

-----------------------------------

A young squad that surprised many last year by making the playoffs, the Colorado Avalanche are in the think of the playoff race, sitting tenth overall in the West while only two points out of a playoff spot. Like many other teams, the Avalanche have not been consistent enough to separate their talented team from the pack. The goaltending has been part of the problem, as last year's surprise in net Craig Anderson has a 3.12 GAA and a .900 Sv % to go along with his record of 13-12-3. Backup netminder Peter Budaj has not fared any better, going 12-7-3 with a 3.17 GAA and a .890 Sv %. Luckily, the forwards have been able to bail out the goalies with All-Star seasons from Paul Stastny and Matt Duchene as well as excellent production from key role players. Duchene's sophomore season has seen him improve, as he is currently leading the team in goals and points with 20 and 45 respectively. Stastny sits second with 43 points on the year. Veteran sniper Milan Hejduk is on pace for his best year since 2003-04, having registered 15 goals and 27 assists for 42 points in 43 games. Defenseman John-Michael Liles exploded early in the season, and has kept his production up with 35 points in 50 games to lead the blueline. David Jones has been able to stay healthy and has 16 goals on the year, while Tomas Fleischmann had 21 points in 22 games after being acquired from Washington in exchange for Scott Hannan, before ending the season with blood clots in his lungs. Chris Stewart injured himself in a fight earlier in the year, and he was deeply missed from the lineup. In the 29 games he has played this year, Stewart has 11 goals and 27 points. Rookie and New Rochelle native Kevin Shattenkirk excelled early on when he was called up from AHL Lake Erie, and has settled in nicely as an offensive compliment to support Liles. The Avalanche have the potential to make the playoffs, and one or two moves to help the team may give them enough firepower to do some damage in the post-season.

Colorado has had two problems this years. The first is goaltending, as explained above. The second is health on the blueline, as there are several key contributors missing on the back end. Acquiring a veteran defenseman could really aid in shutting down opposing forwards which could in turn aid in improving the goaltending performances of Anderson and Budaj. A veteran scorer could also aid the team going forward, as a team can never have too many contributors offensively. A top-6 of Stastny, Hejduk, Duchene, Stewart, Jones and Galiardi is good, but improving that sixth slot could be crucial. Fleischmann was brought in to fulfill that, and he did until his season was ended. The Avalanche have lots of prospect depth on defense and in net, and could spare some of their prospects along with draft picks to make a move at the trade deadline.

-----------------------------------

Minnesota currently sits at ninth in the West with 57 points so far this year. They are one point out of eighth and only four points behind fourth place Nashville. The Wild have only scored 131 goals on the year so far which would rank them twelfth overall in the West, yet it is their defense that has kept them in the hunt for the post-season. Only three Western Conference teams have better defenses than the Wild, who have yielded 134 goals against. Four players are tied for the team lead in goals, which exemplifies how the Wild have had to score by committee instead of being able to rely on certain players. Mikko Koivu, Martin Havlat, Brent Burns and Cal Clutterbuck all hold a claim to the lead in goals for Minnesota, and the team could not be happier with the aid in production. Havlat leads the team in points overall with 44 on the year as this is a reclamation season after a disappointing year in 2009-10. The captain of the Wild, Koivu, is only one point behind Havlat's pace and is one of the key cogs in Minnesota's overall game. Cal Clutterbuck, arguably the best name in hockey, has added an offensive part to his overall game. Known as a tenacious forechecker that works hard, Clutterbuck has 227 hits on the year. No, that is not a typo. 227 hits in 49 games. The closest teammate to that total is Eric Nystrom who currently has 122. Matt Cullen has provided a veteran presence and additional scoring with 10 goals and 31 points. He is a versatile forward that can play any position and can line up at the point on the powerplay. Veteran Andrew Brunette continues to contribute as a secondary scorer, as do Antti Miettinen, P-M Bouchard and Chuck Kobasew. Brent Burns, as mentioned above, has 14 goals as well to lead the defense for the Wild. He has a heavy point shot and has been good in both ends of the ice this season. Marek Zidlicky has been injured this year, and Cam Barker has been an utter disappointment with only five points in 41 games. Dependable blueliner Nick Shultz has 13 points and 85 blocked shots on the year. The goaltending has been superb for Minnesota as Niklas Backstrom has a .920 Sv % and a 2.43 GAA while backup Jose Theodore has a .910 Sv % and a 2.66 GAA.

As you might have guessed, the problem for the Wild is offense. They are one of the lowest scoring teams in the NHL, and the next few weeks will determine if they will be buyers or sellers at the deadline. This is the case with most of the teams in the West. If they are buyers, then they could use a top winger to aid in scoring goals or setting them up. Toronto's Kris Versteeg could be a target, as could Carolina's Jussi Jokinen, Ottawa's Milan Michalek or NJ's Brian Rolston. If they decide to sell and build for the future, Chuck Kobasew, Andrew Brunette and Antti Miettinen are all UFA's after this year and can provide forward depth. It is highly doubtful that the Wild will shop a defenseman, but Greg Zanon is an excellent defensive defenseman who would be a great compliment to a playoff team. Jose Theodore could be traded to provide goaltending depth, as prospect Anton Khubodin has played well in limited NHL ice time.

-----------------------------------

I definitely chose a difficult division to start with, as this team is the only sure thing of the bunch. The cream of the crop in the west, the Vancouver Canucks have set the pace for the rest of their rivals. Having only lost ten times in regulation, The Canucks have both the best offense and best defense (tied with Nashville) in the west, with 169 goals scored and 122 goals against. Leading the way are the Sedin twins as always, ranking one and two for points on the team. Daniel leads the team with 66 points, having scored 27 goals and 39 assists. Brother Henrik has been an assist machine this year, registering 51 to go along with 11 goals on the season. Ryan Kesler has truly emerged as one of the best, if not the best two-way talent in the NHL, having scored 28 goals to lead the team along with 20 assists, a +19, 78 hits and 51 blocked shots. The depth continues with contributions from Alex Burrows, Mikael Samuelsson, Mason Raymond and Raffi Torres. Each of those four players has between 21 and 29 points on the season, aiding in the Canucks' offensive dominance. The defense has been just as good at scoring points, as Alex Edler has 31 points and Christian Ehrhoff has 30. Unfortunately for Vancouver, Edler was injured and is out for the remainder of the season. He may be able to return come playoff time, and he will be a welcome addition to the lineup. With Edler out, the Canucks will count on Keith Ballard and Dan Hamhuis to contribute more and lessen the blow. Manny Malhotra is justifying his three-year contract signed over the summer, as he has provided a good defensive presence up front. The goaltending of Vancouver is a tremendous story for this season, as both Roberto Luongo and rookie Cory Schneider have been outstanding. Luongo owns a 23-8-7 record with a .920 Sv % and a 2.27 GAA. Even more impressive is the stats line of Schneider, who is 9-2-2 with a .930 Sv % and a 2.25 GAA in 15 games overall.

With that in mind, Vancouver has two excellent trade chips to add pieces at the deadline. Cory Schneider deserves the starting job somewhere, and my guess is that New Jersey could make a bid for him to be their goaltender of the future after Brodeur retires. If not New Jersey, then I could see Washington or Tampa Bay making a play for him during the off-season as he will be a star in the NHL. Mikael Samuelsson is another trade piece that can intrigue many teams. He is a proven post-season veteran who can contribute to any team seeking scoring depth, and will fetch a good return for the Canucks with either a good roster player, prospect or draft pick. The Vancouver Canucks are positioned to make a deep playoff run carried by the Sedins, Kesler and Luongo.

-----------------------------------

There it is, folks; my thoughts on the Northwest division. Vancouver is the only lock to make the playoffs, as the other four teams are currently on the outside looking in. Of course, anything can happen between now and the last game of the season. My prediction is that the Canucks and the Avalanche make the season, while Minnesota barely misses out and Calgary sinks to the bottom of the conference. Edmonton, not surprisingly, will get another lottery pick to continue building a young core. The next analysis will be on the surprisingly good Pacific Division. AW over and out.

No comments:

Post a Comment