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Saturday, February 5, 2011

Division Analysis: Central

Tonight I'm going to finish up the Western Conference by discussing the Central Division. Home to the defending Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks, perennial threat Detroit Red Wings, always surprising Nashville Predators, along with the young St. Louis Blues and the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Central gives a very varied host of teams from contender to sellers at the deadline. It could be an interesting deadline for those teams in the mid-west.


The Blackhawks are fresh off of their Stanley Cup Champion season and have seen a major roster turnover since the summer months. Out are Antti Niemi, Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien, Colin Fraser, Christobal Huet, Kris Versteeg, Brent Sopel, John Madden and Adam Burish and in are several rookies and new players who have made a difference. Jack Skille, Brian Bickell, Jake Dowell, Viktor Stalberg, Fernando Pisani and John Scott have been effective in replacing the lost players, yet the Blackhawks are not a lock to make the playoffs. Patrick Sharp has exploded offensively, while Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane have been good but not great. 11 players have seven or more goals this season, which has aided in the loss of certain players. Also, Marian Hossa missed time early on and has 25 points in 32 games. The defense has been lead by Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, being aided by Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brian Campbell. Goaltending has been an interesting topic for the Blackhawks, as neither free agent signing Marty Turco nor rookie Corey Crawford has claimed the starting job. Like last season, the Blackhawks will probably stick with one guy down the stretch as they did with Niemi. Can Crawford evolve into a playoff starter like Niemi did last year? That question will be answered later in the season.

The Blackhawks are not great defensively, and could use a veteran bottom-6 forward or two to help with penalty killing as well as their 5-on-5 play. Chuck Kobasew or Antti Mietinen of the Wild could be good fits, as could Atlanta's Steve Bernier or Rostislav Olesz.  They could also make an upgrade to their scorers, possibly dangling Seabrook as trade bait with Nick Leddy, Ivan Vishnevskiy and Dylan Olsen waiting in the wings. Look for Chicago to make a few moves, as they are under high expectations to make the playoffs this year.

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Columbus had a hot start this year, having some believe that this could be the season that Columbus progresses to a good, playoff-bound team. Unfortunately, the wheels have fallen off since, and in their last 13 games are 4-7-2 which includes a five game losing streak. Rick Nash leads the team in scoring (shocking, I know) with 23 goals and 44 points in what shows to be another excellent season in the power forward's career. Young forwards Derick Brassard and Jakub Voracek have 35 and 32 points respectively and have shown flashes of the promising potential these two players have going forward for the rebuilding Blue Jackets. R.J. Umberger and Antoine Vermette have provided secondary scoring, aiding in the attack and on defense as well. Fedor Tyutin, Jan Hejda and Rostislav Klesla are the core defense for the Blue Jackets, and have provided steady yet unspectacular play this season. The Jackets are tied for 13th in the West, yet are only six points out of a playoff spot. Unless they turn their play around, however, they should be sellers at the trade deadline.

That being said, there are several interesting players that the Blue Jackets could send off for promising prospects and draft picks to build towards the future. Veteran Jan Hejda is an excellent defensive-minded defender, and would make a great compliment to a team aspiring for the Stanley Cup. As an added bonus, he is a free agent at the end of the season. Veterans Chris Clark, Ethan Moreau and Andy Murray are also all free agents at season's end, and could greatly improve a team looking for forward depth to make a post-season drive. Samuel Pahlsson is signed through next season, yet provides excellent defensive play and veteran leadership and has won a Stanley Cup with Anaheim in 2006-07. Columbus could get many important picks and prospects in return for their veterans at the trade deadline.

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The Blues are in an interesting spot at this time during the season. Like the Blue Jackets, they got off to an incredibly hot start led by goaltender Jaroslav Halak. Now due to inconsistent play at times the Blues are in the cellar of the West yet are only six points out of a playoff spot. They are tied with Columbus for 13th, and have several options leading up to the deadline. If management deems that they can make the playoffs this season, they can keep their team as is or make a few subtle changes to try and propel into the top eight. If they decide to continue to build towards the future with their young core, they could acquire important building pieces in what is sure to be a sellers market. Veteran Alex Steen leads the team in points with 38, with All-Star power forward David Backes right behind him with 37. Young guns Patrick Berglund and Matt D'Agostini have 30 and 25 points, respectively. Finally able to carve out a spot on the NHL roster, Alex Pietrangelo has 24 points in 47 games. Erik Johnson, Eric Brewer and Barret Jackman lead from a defensive standpoint, providing good two-way play. T.J. Oshie, Andy McDonald and David Perron have all missed significant time with injuries, though Oshie and McDonald have returned to play recently. After a very hot start where he built off of his heroic post-season play, Jaroslav Halak has fallen back to earth with a .910 Sv % and a 2.62 GAA.  Veteran Ty Conklin has provided good work in a backup role for the young Blues.

If the Blues take advantage of a sellers market at the trade deadline, they could certainly get away with a few steals to help them into the future. Eric Brewer is a free agent after this season, and is a good top-4 defenseman on most teams. He could determine the market price, as he is a two-way defenseman that could fetch a pick and a prospect. Carlo Colaiacovo is an interesting name, as he can move the puck, work the point on the powerplay and he is also signed through next season. Brad Winchester is a good bottom-6 grinder that can also score goals, and would make an excellent addition to a playoff team. If the Blues were looking to seriously shake things up, they could dangle center Andy McDonald who is signed for two more years with a $4.7million cap hit. McDonald has the ability of a true #1 center with speed, vision and offensive creativity. He could fetch a hefty return for a team looking to boost their young core of Oshie, Berglund, Backes, Perron, Johnson and Pietrangelo.

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Until I looked at his stat line, I didn't realize how good of a season Nashville's Pekka Rinne is having. .930 Sv %, 2.10 GAA, 17 wins in 35 starts. He is ranked second in the league in both save percentage and goals against average, and if it were not for Tim Thomas' monster season he would have more publicity about it. Nashville may not be a traditional hockey market, but they have something going right for once after two former starting goalies have been traded away when they failed to live up to expectations after breaking out. On the offensive side of the puck, the Predators are not gifted with elite level skill or a budget as high as the cap yet are able to remain competitive with coach Barry Trotz at the helm. Shea Weber leads the team with 32 points, and is also the premier defender of the squad. At the skills competition, he showed his blistering shot that was well over 100 MPH. A 30-goal man one year ago, Patrick Hornqvist is one of the better players up front with 28 points. Sergei Kostitsyn has that same total, and has revitalized his career after playing his way out of Montreal. Veteran J.P. Dumont has played in 51 of the Preds' 52 games this season, yet most people would not have noticed. The winger has only 17 points on the season, and has been a non-factor for a team that looks for scoring from anywhere. This team will only go as far as Rinne can carry them. They do not have the firepower to get past the first round of the playoffs, a place Nashville has never been.

Nashville is a low-budget team team that does not have cap flexibility that a team like the New York Rangers or the Toronto Maple Leafs has. They have been able to make moves before (see: Peter Forsberg), but for the most part will have the same roster going forward, with maybe one or two acquisitions in the works. Nashville has a good shot at a playoff spot, but again may not get past the first round. If they want to bring in a veteran, they have excellent prospect depth both in net and on defense, dangling one of Jon Blum, Mark Dekanich or Chet Pickard. They could also send off Dumont or winger Martin Erat with a prospect for one better winger that is available from one of the selling teams.

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Second in the West and tops in the Central Division, the Detroit Red Wings continue to play with a dominating style against their opponents. Pavel Datsyuk was on pace for a great season with 39 points in 33 games, yet has missed a month with a broken hand. In the absence of arguably the league's top two-way threat, the Red Wings continued to play their system under coach Mike Babcock and have again been successful. Johan Franzen leads the team with 26 goals, while Henrik Zetterberg has 40 assists and 56 points.Valtteri Filppula, Todd Bertuzzi, Dan Cleary, Darren Helm, Patrick Eaves and Jiri Hudler have all made contributions to aid in scoring when Datsyuk and other players went down to injury. On the defensive side of the puck, 40-year old Nicklas Lidstrom has played like he is 15 years younger. He has 44 points and is one of the top offensive blueliners in the league again this year. Nicklas Kronwall has provided a steady two-way game, aiding in moving the puck along with dishing out big hits and blocking shots. Brian Rafalski and Brad Stuart have both missed time with injuries during the season, while Jonathan Ericsson, Ruslan Salei and Jakub Kindle have been good defensively as well. In net, Jimmy Howard has been hot and cold, currently sporting a .900 Sv % and 2.85 GAA.

Detroit is primed to make another great post-season run. They have plenty of veteran leadership and also have some youth added into the mix. In Grand Rapids (AHL), the Red Wings have some steady prospects developing to add to their group in the future. If the team makes a move at the deadline, it will be in an attempt to add a veteran backup netminder and possibly a depth defenseman. Detroit has the ability to go deep into the playoffs, led by Datsyuk, Franzen, Zetterberg and Lidstrom. Detroit is an organization that teams will look to copy and mold in attempts to be successful, as they have the recipe for success year in and year out.

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So, the Western Conference is now all covered. 14 of the 15 teams have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, and it will be a seller's market at the deadline. Teams will have to overpay for players as few teams will be willing to give them up. I predict that Detroit, Nashville and Chicago will make the playoffs, while Columbus and St. Louis will miss out. If Halak can get hot for the Blues, he could provide a boost and give St. Louis a much better shot. Again, these are all just my thoughts. I am not an insider with sources, though neither are some more "prestigious" hockey blogs. Let me know what you think in the comments below. AW over an out.

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